Climate Change and the Global Economy

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Dried up river bed

Unrelenting drought, an outcome of climate change (Modern Event Preparedness/Flickr)

While the debate rages over global warming, it cannot be denied that the climate is undergoing some changes. The discussion over the causes of this change must take a back seat to the issue of how warming affects the global economy.

History of climate change is only one thing experts look at as they analyze the impact of warming. The other is computer modeling that can help scientists predict future rates of temperature rise, according to Daniel Yergin. A Pulitzer prize winner, Yergin explains that there has been controversy over climate change since it first was documented in the 18th century study of glaciers. The “Greenhouse Effect” then, however seemed to have more to do with global cooling.

Global warming trends are not uniform. Some areas are presently showing cooling and some areas are getting drier while others are being drenched with unusual amounts of precipitation. Therein lies much of the debate: the change is not predictable over the short range. Many global warming proponents, though, point out that the changes are like stock market investments; for the short range there are rapid declines as well as advances, but climate-watchers, like the investors, must develop a long-term mentality.

How does an increase in global warming, if indeed there is an increase, affect the global economy? The first and most obvious place where changes show up is in the world’s oceans and seas. About 71 per cent of the earth is covered with water. In the last one hundred years, oceans have risen four-to-eight inches. The result is flooding and storm surge waves that impact not only homes and industry along the coasts but threaten the integrity of fresh water resources.

In addition, one billion people rely on fish as their protein. Warmer water temperatures cause diseases in fish, but they also decrease in the numbers of plankton that fish feed on. The fishing industry is already in trouble because fishermen worldwide are fishing the waters at a rate 2.5 times greater than the oceans can sustain. An additional decrease in the fish population will cause hardship to the fishing industry, not only to big business but to the small independent fishermen whose livelihood comes from the sea.

Farmers are seeing an increase in violent weather events, the so-called Acts of God, but the general trend is toward unrelenting and pervasive drought. Many American farmers, for instance have plowed under dried-up shriveled crops, too sparse even for cattle feed. Conflict over water rights and resources will lead to national instabilities. Colorado and Nebraska, in the US, are embattled over waters from the Ogallala Aquifer, for instance. This issue will be litigated, but disputes among nations are more likely to result in conflict that can affect everything from oil prices to availability of grains to sustain fragile populations in at-risk countries. In addition, there is a possibility of hoards emigrating from unfruitful lands and straining the economies of already stressed areas.

Yergin mentioned the computer models that portend a gloomy future for mankind and his economy. The insurance industry is already adjusting to changing patterns of weather and natural disaster. As the Ghost of Christmas Present tells Scrooge in Dickens’ “A Christmas Carol,” “If these shadows remain unchanged, the child will die.” What child? The fragile global economy sustaining the world’s populations.

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