U.S. Cancer Care Costs to Rise 39 Pct by 2020

(Investor.gov)

The cost of caring for U.S. cancer patients is expected to rise sharply in the 2010 to 2020 decade, according to an analysis published online in the Journal of the National Cancer Institute. The combination of population aging and rising expense rates are projected to push the cost for cancer care to $173 billion, a 39 percent increase over 2010. (All cost estimates are given in 2010 dollars.)

A National Cancer Institute (NCI) team led by Angela Mariotto analyzed rates of new cancer cases and survival from records in an NCI database for 13 types of cancer in men and 16 cancers in women. The team also analyzed costs of care from Medicare claims through 2006 linked to the NCI database from beneficiaries aged 65 years and older diagnosed with cancer. They drew from the database as well a random-sample control group to adjust for costs unrelated to cancer.

The NCI team estimates 18.1 million Americans will be cancer patients in 2020, compared to 13.8 million in 2010. The cost of caring for cancer patients is also projected to rise from $124.6 million in 2010 to $157.8 million in 2020, a 27 percent increase based the aging of population alone. While the rate of new cancer cases is declining and survival rates are increasing, these factors made only a small impact on the projections for 2020, given the aging of the U.S. population.

The researchers note that the costs of cancer care for terminal patients are highest when first diagnosed and in the last year of life, with lower expenses incurred in the continuing stage between the beginning and end. Adding in a two percent annual price increase for care in the initial and end-of-life stages increases the total cost of cancer care to $173 billion in 2020, and increase of 39 percent over 2010.

The team projects the largest cost increases, however, for continuing phase costs of more common cancers, mainly due to gains in survival rates. The cost of caring for prostate cancer cases is expected to increase 42 percent and go up 32 percent for breast cancer in women by 2020.

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